Transcript dpselectricityforecasting.ppt

DPS Electricity Forecasting
Historic Practices and Status of
Current Plans
Sept. 13, 2005
Informational Workshop Docket 7081
J. Riley Allen
1
Topics



DPS forecasting approach and methods
DSP plans for updating its forecasts
Open issues
2
Overview of Current Practices

The Department’s electricity forecast is a
forecast built up from 3 independent efforts



All Fuel Prices forecast/Avoided costs – Currently
being finalized ICF (biennial)/Currently under
development in connection with update of avoided
costs.
Economic Forecast – Regional Economic Modeling,
Inc., (equilibrium model)
Energy System Dynamics – Platform is being migrated
from existing Promula base to VENSIM (interim use
of econometric model)
3
Structural Model (Energy)

System Dynamics (historically E2020) – Allows
simulation of the world as it works with feedback
loops.




Policy Simulation -- What ifs and structural changes
Flexibility -- Flexibility to exchange key inputs with
other models (REMI, Fuel prices)
Consistency – Allows consistency with other forecasts
of BEA, Vermont, and EIA (or other fuel price
forecasts)
Bottom up -- Ability to develop forecasts that have
both top-down and bottom-up consistency.
4
Structural Model (Economy)

Economic (equilibrium model, REMI)



Regional economic model (can be national,
regional, state or local)
Relied on by state to generate forecast of the
economy for budget projections;
Impact analysis (what if’s and impacts of
structural changes on fuel forecasts and
feedbacks)
5
Why structural models?

Flexibility and Policy Simulation






Building Standards;
Appliance Standards;
Efficiency Utility Programs;
Cogeneration.
Uncertainty analysis (flexible tool for what if’s and
scenario analysis)
Forecasting Accuracy (???)


The tool allows one to capture significant influences that did not
exist or were not significant in historical data.
Depends on commitment to detail and maintenance.
6
DPS Schedule

All Fuel Price forecast/Avoided Costs (ICF
analysis)





Finalized in September 2005
Economic Analyst/Forecasting (Sept ’05)
Economic Projections (January/February 2006)
Statewide electricity forecast incorporating
economic forecast (January/February ’06)
System dynamics forecast (Aug/Sept ’06)
7
Open Issues





Local versus statewide -- Current DPS forecast is typically Statewide
(Local forecasting)
Harmonization/Reconciliation -- Relationship between DPS forecast
and VELCO/ISO-NE forecast and individual utility forecasts;
DPS Role as Advocate and Planner -- DPS as advocate in Board
proceedings. Forecast is sometimes used by Vt. utilities in Board
proceedings.
Information Sharing -- What information can be used or shared
between the DPS and the utilities and EVT to improve forecasting
and ability to identify impacts of DR?
Uncertainty Analysis -- Role of uncertainty analysis/alternative load
scenarios
8
Conclusion
9